Alcohol use trajectories among U.S. adults during the first 42 weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic

Background: This study characterized the prevalence, drinking patterns, and sociodemographic characteristics of U.S. adult subpopulations with distinct drinking trajectories during the COVID-19 pandemic's first 42 weeks. Methods: Adult respondents (n = 8130) in a nationally representative prospective longitudinal study completed 21 biweekly web surveys (March 2020 to January 2021). Past-week alcohol drinking frequency (drinking days [range: 0 to 7]) and intensity (binge drinking on usual past-week drinking day [yes/no]) were assessed at each timepoint. Growth mixture models identified multiple subpopulations with homogenous drinking trajectories based on mean drinking days or binge drinking proportional probabilities across time. Results: Four drinking frequency trajectories were identified: Minimal/stable (72.8% [95% CI = 71.8 to 73.8]) with <1 mean past-week drinking days throughout; Moderate/late decreasing (6.7% [95% CI = 6.2 to 7.3) with 3.13 mean March drinking days and reductions during summer, reaching 2.12 days by January 2021; Moderate/early increasing (12.9% [95% CI = 12.2 to 13.6) with 2.13 mean March drinking days that increased in April and then plateaued, ending with 3.20 mean days in January 2021; and Near daily/early increasing (7.6% [95% CI = 7.0 to 8.2]) with 5.58 mean March drinking days that continued increasing without returning to baseline. Four drinking intensity trajectories were identified: Minimal/stable (85.8% [95% CI = 85.0% to 86.5%]) with <0.01 binge drinking probabilities throughout; Low-to-moderate/fluctuating (7.4% [95% CI = 6.8% to 8%]) with varying binge probabilities across timepoints (range:0.12 to 0.26); Moderate/mid increasing (4.2% [95% CI = 3.7% to 4.6%]) with 0.39 April binge drinking probability rising to 0.65 during August–September without returning to baseline; High/early increasing trajectory (2.7% [95% CI = 2.3% to 3%]) with 0.84 binge drinking probability rising to 0.96 by June without returning to baseline. Males, Whites, middle-aged/older adults, college degree recipients, those consistently working, and those above the poverty limit were overrepresented in various increasing (vs. minimal/stable) frequency trajectories. Males, Whites, nonmarried, those without college degree, 18 to 39-year-olds, and middle aged were overrepresented in increasing (vs. minimal/stable) intensity trajectories. Conclusions: Several distinct U.S. adult sociodemographic subpopulations appear to have acquired new drinking patterns during the pandemic's first 42 weeks. Frequent alcohol use assessment in the COVID-19 era could improve personalized medicine and population health efforts to reduce drinking.