Identifying the best measures of alcohol consumption to predict future HIV viral suppression trajectories

Alcohol use is associated with poor outcomes among people living with HIV (PLWH), but it remains unclear which alcohol use measures best predict future HIV viral non-suppression over time. This study aimed to compare the ability of five alcohol use measures to predict risk of suboptimal HIV viral load trajectories over 36 months. We analyzed data from a cohort of PLWH in Florida including survey data linked to the state HIV surveillance system on prospective HIV viral loads over 36 months (n = 783; 66% male; 55% Black; Mage=46, SD = 11). Four trajectory patterns for HIV viral load were identified: consistently low (65.1%), decreasing (15.9%), increasing (10.6%), and consistently high (8.4%). Past year alcohol use frequency (OR = 2.1, CI:1.0-4.4), drinks consumed on a typical drinking day (OR = 2.2, CI:1.2–4.1), frequency of binge drinking (OR = 2.6, CI:1.3–5.2), and alcohol-related problems score (OR = 1.7, CI:1.1–2.7) were the measures predictive of the risk of future viral non-suppression above specific thresholds.