Alcohol Consumption and the Risk of Incident Atrial Fibrillation: A Meta-Analysis

Alcohol consumption is a known, modifiable risk factor for incident atrial fibrillation (AF). However, it remains unclear whether the protective effect of moderate alcohol consumption-that has been reported for various cardiovascular diseases also applies to the risk for new-onset AF. The purpose of this meta-analysis was to evaluate the role of different drinking patterns (low: <14 grams/week; moderate: <168 grams/week; and heavy: >168 grams/week) on the risk for incident AF. Major electronic databases were searched for observational cohorts examining the role of different drinking behaviors on the risk for incident AF. We analyzed 16 studies (13,044,007 patients). Incident AF rate was 2.3%. Moderate alcohol consumption significantly reduced the risk for new-onset AF when compared to both abstainers (logOR: −0.20; 95%CI: −0.28–−0.12; I2: 96.71%) and heavy drinkers (logOR: −0.28; 95%CI: −0.37–−0.18; I2: 95.18%). Heavy-drinking pattern compared to low also increased the risk for incident AF (logOR: 0.14; 95%CI: 0.01–0.2; I2: 98.13%). Substantial heterogeneity was noted, with more homogeneous results documented in cohorts with follow-up shorter than five years. Our findings suggest a J-shaped relationship between alcohol consumption and incident AF. Up to 14 drinks per week seem to decrease the risk for developing AF. Because of the substantial heterogeneity observed, no robust conclusion can be drawn. In any case, our results suggest that the association between alcohol consumption and incident AF is far from being a straightforward dose-response effect.