Predictors of Death among Long-Term Stroke Survivors

Background and Purpose-We evaluated the risk factors for death among long-term stroke survivors compared with stroke-free subjects. Methods-In 1997 we investigated 221 stroke survivors (mean, 9.4 years after index stroke) and 243 stroke-free subjects; both groups were recruited from a population-based health study. During the subsequent 5 years, all deaths (51 and 21 in the stroke and stroke-free groups, respectively) were registered. Results-The age- and sex-adjusted total mortality rate for the 5-year follow-up was 21.0% in the stroke group and 7.9% in the stroke-free group (P<0.0001), depending on different rates of cardiovascular deaths (P<0.0001). Better physical and social functioning (P<0.0001) and moderate use of alcohol (P≤0.004), the latter compared with no use, decreased risk of death, irrespective of stroke status. A myocardial infarction risk score had no impact on death in the stroke group, in contrast to the increased risk seen among the stroke-free group (P=0.0001). Conclusions-The long-term stroke survivors had significant excess risk of death compared with stroke-free subjects. Better physical and social functioning and moderate use of alcohol were associated with decreased risk, whereas a myocardial infarction risk score increased risk for death only in the stroke-free group.